<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2019 Nov 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low, and no sunspots were on the visible
disk. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph
imagery.

.Forecast...
Very low solar activity is expected to continue 17-19 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at normal
to moderate levels on 17-19 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to maintain background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, suggested
onset of a CIR ahead of influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. Total
magnetic field strength increased to a peak of 10 nT at 16/1758 UTC. The
Bz component was mostly positive but briefly reached as far south as -7
nT. Solar wind speeds approached 450 km/s by the periods end. Phi angle
was mostly negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue at enhanced levels on 17
Nov. Nominal conditions are likely to return over 18 Nov. An additional
enhancement is likely on 19 Nov as a positive polarity CH HSS is
expected to become geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to reach isolated unsettled conditions
on 17 Nov. Mostly quiet conditions are expected to return on 18 Nov as
CH HSS influence wanes. 19 Nov may see additional periods of unsettled
conditions in response to an anticipated positive polarity CH HSS.