<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2022 Jan 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2929 (N08, L=321) produced several
B-class flares from at or just beyond the W limb. Slight decay was
observed in Regions 2927 (S21W85, Axx/alpha) and 2933 (S20W56,
Hax/alpha). Region 2934 (S24E61, Hsx/alpha) was stable and quiet. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed over the reporting period.

Other activity included an approximate 12 degree filament eruption near
S16E70 which began at 21/0737 UTC.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low on 21 Jan, with a slight chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) primarily due to
the flare history of Region 2929. Over 22-23 Jan, activity should return
to very low levels as Region 2929 rotates further around the western
limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 2,657 pfu observed at 20/1655 UTC.

The greater than 100 MeV proton event above 1 pfu that began at 20/0745
UTC and reached a maximum of 1 pfu at 20/0850 UTC, ended at 20/1110 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event above 10 pfu (S1-Minor) that began
at 20/0800 UTC and reached a peak of 22 pfu at 20/1015 UTC, ended at
20/1555 UTC.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
21-23 Jan due to CH HSS/CME influences.

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue to diminish
to background levels on 21-23 Jan, barring any additional enhancement
caused by Region 2929 or 2930 (N21, L=324) from just beyond the W limb.
The slight chance becomes less likely on days two and three as both
regions move out of a favorably connected zone.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters returned to nominal levels. Solar wind speed
decreased from approximately 470 km/s to near 410 km/s. Total field
ranged from 1-5 nT while the Bz component was between +4/-3 nT. Phi
angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be at or near nominal levels
through the rest of 21 Jan. An enhancement is possible on 22 Jan as
weak, glancing blow effects arrive from the 18 Jan CME and continue into
23 Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
21 Jan. Quiet to active levels are likely late on 22 Jan and into 23 Jan
as weak influence from the 18 Jan CME may influence the near-Earth space
environment.