<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2019 Jul 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low 18-20 Jul.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels 18-19 Jul before decreasing to normal to moderate levels
on 20 Jul as solar wind speeds decrease. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background levels all three days.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected a return to near background conditions.
Solar wind speeds decreased from ~450 km/s to near 395 km/s, total field
strength averaged near 4 nT, and the Bz component averaged around +/- 3
nT. The phi angle was positive until 17/1800 UTC when it shifted into a
negative position, then rotated back to positive after 18/0842 UTC.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is anticipated to remain at mostly background
levels on 18-20 Jul, with a chance for isolated minor enhancements, due
weak influences from CH HSS proximity.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet, with a
chance for occasional unsettled conditions, on 18-20 Jul in response to
isolated enhancements in the solar wind.