<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

Share on FacebookShare on Google+Tweet about this on TwitterShare on LinkedIn
:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Feb 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The visible disk remained spotless. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the forecast period
(23-25 Feb).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 4,700 pfu at 22/0005 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at
background levels throughout the forecast period (23-25 Feb).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected weak influence from a negative polarity
coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Wind speed began the period
near 390 km/s, reached a peak of 442 km/s at 22/1609 UTC, and ended at
approximately 420 km/s. Total field reached a maximum value of 9 nT,
late in the period, while Bz dropped to a period low of -8 nT. Phi angle
was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is likely to undergo occasional enhancements
over the next three days (23-25 Feb) due to influence from multiple
negative polarity CH HSSs in the southwest quadrant of the solar disk.
Some periods of increased solar wind speeds are also likely throughout
the forecast period.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to effects from
negative polarity CH HSS influence.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to active levels on day
one (23 Feb) and quiet to unsettled levels on days two and three (24-25
Feb) under negative polarity CH HSS influence.