<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2020 Dec 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Regions 2787 (N30,L=305), 2788 (S27,
L=349, and 2789 (S25, L=300) decayed to plage. Region 2786 (S15W24,
Cko/beta) underwent consolidation and decay in its intermediate and
trailer spots, and remained inactive for the period. Newly numbered
region 2790 (S23E61, Hax/alpha) produced a C3.8 flare at 01/0427 UTC
which was the largest of the period.

After decaying to plage, region 2787 produced a short-lived C1.2 flare
resulting in an observed CME in coronagraph imagery. Initial observation
is that this CME is aimed more towards STEREO-A, but a model run is
underway to determine if there is any Earth-directed component.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at low levels with a chance for
M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) on 01-03 Dec.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was enhanced from the southeast limb
event on 29 Nov but remained below the 10 pfu threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 01-03 Dec. There is a slight chance for a greater
than 10 MeV proton event (S1-minor) given the sustained, gradual rise in
pfu.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated. Wind speeds ranged from
400-550 km/s, total field averaged 3-4 nT, and the Bz component ranged
from -5 nT to 4 nT. Phi was in a negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Model runs suggest a shock enhancement/glancing blow from the 29 Nov CME
on 01-02 Dec. The bulk of the ejecta was not Earth-directed.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
While model runs suggest a possible glancing blow as early as 1 Dec from
the 29 Nov CME, it is not entirely likely since the CME occurred behind
the east limb. Nonetheless, this expansive event has spurred a slight
particle response at ACE and GOES, which suggests Earth may see some
component of this CME. Active conditions are possible if this were to
materialize. Otherwise quiet to unsettled conditions are anticipated as
solar wind rebounds nearer to background levels.