<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Sep 24 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. A
solar filament, centered near N44E53, lifted off at around 23/1200 UTC
as viewed in SDO/AIA 171 and GONG imagery. However, the bulk of the
plasma appeared to have been reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 24-26 Sep.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the
period with a peak flux of 8,045 pfu observed at 23/1620 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels
throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels
throughout the forecast period (24-26 Sep). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux is expected to persist at background levels throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected the continued influence from a weak,
negative polarity CH HSS. Winds speeds averaged about 450 km/s, total
field ranged between 1-10 nT while the Bz component varied between +/-5
nT. Orientation of the phi angle was in a steady negative sector through
about 23/2330 UTC becoming variable thereafter.

Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain slightly enhanced
through days one and two (24-25 Sep) under the influence of a weak
negative polarity CH HSS. A return to mostly nominal conditions is
expected by day three (26 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to unsettled levels due to CH
HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels,
with isolated active intervals, for the remainder of day one (24 Sep).
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 25-26 Sep. This is due to the
influences of multiple, weak negative polarity CH HSSs.