<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2019 Mar 26 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and the visible disk was spotless. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low all three days (26-28
Mar).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels all three days (26-28 Mar); while the greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a mildly disturbed IMF
environment. Total IMF strength began the period at 8 nT and unsteadily
weakened, before it ended the period at about 5 to 6 nT. The Bz
component underwent frequent north and south deviations, without any
prolonged or pronounced periods of southward direction. Solar wind speed
ranged from 300-350 km/s. The phi angle began the period in a positive
sector, before it reoriented into primarily a negative sector at around
25/0600
UTC.

.Forecast...
A slow solar wind regime is anticipated to to continue through day one
(26 Mar). A CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS is anticipated to
arrive later on day two (27 Mar) and cause a disturbance and enhancement
in the IMF; followed by an increase in solar wind speed due to onset of
the CH HSS by day three (28 Mar).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(26 Mar). CIR arrival is expected to elicit quiet to unsettled
responses, with a likely period of active conditions late on day two (27
Mar). Increasing solar wind speed due to CH HSS onset is likely to cause
quiet to active conditions on day three (28 Mar).