<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Aug 17 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2718(S03E17, Hrx/beta) continued to
exhibit decay and was inactive during the period. No CMEs were observed
in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 17-19 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to at normal to
moderate levels over the next three days (17-19 Aug). The greater than
10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels throughout
the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected
the continued, but waning influence of a positive polarity CH HSS. Total
magnetic field strength peaked near 9 nT early in the period, solar wind
speeds reached just over 500 km/s, and the Bz component saw a maximum
southward deflection of -7 nT. Phi was predominantly oriented in the
positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to trend towards nominal levels as CH
HSS effects diminish on 17 Aug. Ambient solar wind conditions are
expected over 18-19 Aug.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels due to influence from a
positive polarity CH HSS.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled for the
remainder of 17 Aug as CH HSS effects diminish. The return of an ambient
solar wind regime is expected to produce quiet conditions on 18-19 Aug.