<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2021 Jun 14 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Both numbered regions were quiet and
stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were identifiable with available
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low on 14-16 Jun.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be normal to
moderate on 14-16 Jun and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to persist at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters, as measured by the DSCOVR spacecraft, reflected a
trend from slightly enhanced towards background conditions. Total
magnetic field strength ranged between 3-7 nT, with the majority of the
day at or below 5 nT. Solar wind speeds were in gradual decline,
decreasing from a peak of ~500 km/s near 13/0300 UTC to under 450 km/s
by the periods end. Phi angle was predominantly oriented in the
positive sector

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters return to nominal levels over 14 Jun. On 15 Jun,
influence from a negative polarity CH HSS is expected. Enhancements are
likely to continue through 16 Jun.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on 14 Jun. On
15 and 16 Jun, the geomagnetic field is likely to reach active
conditions due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.