<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2019 Jan 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low, despite the emergence of new Region 2733
(N06E22, Cro/beta). Region 2733s growth stalled midway through the
period, and appeared to show some signs of decay in the trailing,
positive polarity field. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a slight chance for
an isolated C-class flare on 23 Jan due primarily to the emergence and
development of Region 2733. The recent stalled growth and early signs of
possible decay lead to a trend forecast of very low solar activity and
less than slight chance for flares on 24-25 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10
MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 23-24 Jan, and increase to normal to high levels on
25 Jan due to CH HSS influences.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slow solar wind regime and
possible proximity to the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). Total IMF
strength ranged from about 3 to 5 nT, and the Bz component underwent
primarily weak deviations. Solar wind speed ranged from 300-350 km/s and
the phi angle was predominantly negative, with a several hour shift into
a positive sector later in the period.

.Forecast...
An SSBC is anticipated by 23 Jan, followed by arrival of a CIR ahead of
an isolated, positive polarity CH HSS. Onset of the CH HSS is expected
by 24 Jan, and solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated into 25
Jan.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled due to SSBC
and approaching CIR influences through midday on 23 Jan. CIR arrival
later in the day is expected to result in isolated active periods, with
a chance for G1 (Minor) storm conditions. Fast solar wind speed from the
CH HSS by 24 Jan is expected to result in primarily unsettled to active
conditions, with a few likely periods of G1 (Minor) storm conditions.
Early waning stages of CH HSS activity is expected to cause primarily
unsettled to active conditions on 25 Jan.