<AUR>.Forecast Discussion

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Nov 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. Region 2726 (N04, L=140) decayed to plage.
A new spot group emerged near center disk and was numbered 2727 (N02W11,
Bxo/beta). No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite
imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 15-17 Nov.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 1,886 pfu observed at 14/1910 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
15-17 Nov and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist
at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged
from 365-465 km/s. Total field was at or below 5 nT while the Bz
component was between +/-4 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a mostly
negative solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to reflect nominal background
conditions on 15-17 Nov.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Quiet levels are expected on 15-17 Nov as nominal background conditions
are anticipated to continue.