<AUR>.Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Feb 11 0402 UTC
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# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
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Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 February 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. There were no numbered
sunspot regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available
coronagraph imagery.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit ranged
from moderate to high levels with a peak flux of 8,980 pfu observed
on 04 Feb. High levels were observed on 04 Feb as a result of
elevated solar wind speeds. Flux levels then ranged from moderate to
high levels through 07 Feb under a mostly background solar wind
regime, and remained at moderate to high levels through 10 Feb while
under weak CH HSS influences.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled periods were observed late in the day on 04 Feb into the
first period of 05 Feb as solar wind speeds decreased from around
500 km/s to around 400 km/s under weakening effects from a negative
polarity CH HSS. Unsettled conditions were again observed on 06 Feb
as a result of minor solar wind enhancements. A SSBC on 08 Feb, and
marginally elevated solar wind speeds, resulted in active levels the
last period of the day. Unsettled levels were observed early on 09
Feb with the onset of an additional negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet
to unsettled levels were observed on 10 Feb with ongoing CH HSS
influences.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 February - 09 March 2019

Solar activity is expected to be predominantly at very low levels
throughout the forecast period. However, low levels are possible
with the return of old Region 2733 (N05, Lo=261) on 12 Feb. This
region was very active while transiting the visible disk, and
produced a C5 flare at 30/0611 UTC near the west limb, in addition
to several other weaker B and C-class flares.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to be at moderate to high levels. High levels are expected
on 11-12 Feb and 21 Feb-09 Mar. Moderate levels are expected 13-20
Feb. All elevated levels of electron flux are anticipated due to
influence from multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be mostly unsetted 11-12
Feb as a result of a recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS. G1 (Minor)
geomagnetic storming can be expected with a recurrent, positive
polarity CH HSS on 19-21 Feb, and also with a recurrent, negative
polarity CH HSS on 27-2 Mar. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
are anticipated with another weaker, recurrent, negative polarity CH
HSS on 07-09 Mar.