<AUR>.Weekly Highlights and Forecasts

:Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2021 Oct 11 0049 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
# Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
04 - 10 October 2021

Solar activity was very low over 04-06 Oct. Low levels of solar
activity were observed on 07-08 and 10 Oct, and moderate solar
activity was observed on 09 Oct. Region 2882 (N17, L=157,
class/area=Dho/280 on 09 Oct) produced the majority of the C-class
flare activity in addition to the largest event of the period, an
M1/2b flare (with Type-II and IV radio emissions) at 09/0638 UTC. An
associated full-halo CME signature was observed in LASCO C2 imagery
beginning at 09/0712 UTC, and is likely to arrive at Earth around
midday on 11 Oct.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal and normal to moderate levels throughout the period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet on 07-09 Oct, quiet to
unsettled on 04-06 Oct, and quiet to active on 10 Oct.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
11 October - 06 November 2021

Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels
throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on 20-21 Oct. Normal and normal to
moderate levels are expected throughout the remainder of the outlook
period.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G2 (Moderate)
geomagnetic storm levels on 11 Oct, and G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm
levels on 12 Oct, due to the anticipated arrival of a full-halo CME
from 09 Oct. Active conditions are expected on 19 Oct due to the
influence of a recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. Quiet and quiet
to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail throughout the
remainder of the outlook period.